CPG Food & Beverage M&A Market Update, September 2, 2026
The market is flat; buyers pay a premium for proven growth with staying power
Deal activity and precedent transactions as of August 28, 2026, and the drivers that determine valuation. Public comparables, precedent transactions, and the sponsors building food manufacturing platforms.
The market is flat
0%
U.S. retail food unit growth through June 14, 2026. National-brand dollars +2.2%, all price. Store brands flat.
M&A is selective
(24.4%)
Year-over-year change in Q2 2026 U.S. food and beverage deal volume. Deal value is recovering faster than count.
Share shifts slowly
+2.2 pts
Store-brand unit share gain since 2021, from 21.6% to a record 23.8% through June 14, 2026.
Growth gets credit
15.0x / 10.8x
Refresco's take-private of SunOpta, LTM vs. FY2026E EV/EBITDA. The buyer paid for EBITDA it could see coming.
Our view: buyers are paying up for unit growth with staying power, hard-to-replicate capabilities, conversion of revenue into EBITDA and cash, and certainty of forward EBITDA.