Market update
CPG Food & Beverage M&A Market Update
Deal activity and precedent transactions as of August 28, 2026, and the drivers that determine valuation.
Summary
The market is flat; buyers pay a premium for proven growth with staying power
0%
U.S. retail food unit growth through June 14, 2026; national-brand dollars +2.2%, all price; store brands flat (PLMA/Circana)
Real volume growth commands the premium. Freshpet grew Q2 volume 15.7% and Premium Brands' U.S. protein initiatives grew 25%, while General Mills FY26 organic sales fell 2% and Nomad volumes fell 5.9%.
(24.4%)
YoY change in Q2 2026 U.S. food and beverage deal volume, all subsectors (PMCF); deal value is recovering faster than count
Strategics were 86.2% of U.S. Q2 transactions (PMCF), but food-focused sponsors are actively buying manufacturers: TreeHouse, Sauer Brands, Furlani and Ne-Mo's.
+2.2 pts
Store-brand unit share gain since 2021, from 21.6% to a record 23.8% through June 14, 2026 (PLMA/Circana)
Store brands are now a retailer differentiation strategy: 94% of shoppers say they will keep buying private brands even if prices decline (FMI). Value accrues to suppliers that bring innovation and reliable supply, and away from commodity capacity.
15.0x / 10.8x
Refresco's take-private of SunOpta, LTM vs. FY2026E EV/EBITDA: a 39% gap. The buyer paid for EBITDA it could see coming (PitchBook)
A big LTM multiple is a buyer or the market paying today for EBITDA it expects tomorrow. SunOpta's gap is FY2026 growth Refresco underwrote; Premium Brands (10.9x LTM, 9.0x forward) is organic growth. Sovos at 19.8x trailing was Rao's 20%+ growth.
Our view: buyers are paying up for unit growth with staying power, hard-to-replicate capabilities, conversion of revenue into EBITDA and cash, and certainty of forward EBITDA. Sellers that evidence all four can drive competitive processes and premium valuations.
Sources: industry research (PwC, PMCF, Kroll, McKinsey, Circana, PLMA, FMI); PitchBook deal data as of August 30, 2026 and market data as of August 28, 2026; company filings and earnings releases; BGP analysis.
Industry backdrop
The market is not growing: volumes are flat and the gap to growth brands is widening
Through Q2 2026: units flat; national-brand dollars +2.2%, all price (price +2.7%, volume (0.5%)); store-brand dollars flat (PLMA/Circana)
Circana expects volumes to stay roughly flat through 2026. Revenue growth that is mostly price without volume growth does not earn a growth multiple.
Freshpet Q2 volume +15.7%; Premium Brands U.S. protein initiatives +25% organic volume
Freshpet's adjusted gross margin reached 48.6% on manufacturing leverage. Consumer pull plus volume and margin expansion is what supports 17x forward EBITDA.
Lamb Weston FY26 North America volume +9%, company adjusted EBITDA (9%); J&J gross margin +240 bps on sales (6.2%)
Lamb Weston gave back price to win market share; J&J cut costs but the top line declined. Neither approach earns valuation expansion.
General Mills FY26 organic sales (2%); Conagra FY26 sales (2.9%); Nomad volume (5.9%)
Established brand ownership no longer guarantees premium economics. Weak sentiment, promotion and trade-down pressure margins across large-cap food.
Buyers pay materially different multiples based on the same four questions: real unit growth, defensible capabilities, EBITDA conversion and forward-EBITDA certainty.
Sources: PLMA/Circana Unify+ midyear release, July 8, 2026; Circana H1 2026 U.S. retail measurement; company Q2/FY26 earnings releases and filings (Freshpet, Premium Brands, Lamb Weston, J&J Snack Foods, General Mills, Conagra, Nomad Foods).
Deal activity
In a flat market, capital concentrates: deal value has returned faster than volume
Announced CPG food & beverage transactions in the tracked comp universe, per half-year
Q1 2026 CPG deal value more than doubled year over year while deal volume continued to fall (PwC, June 2026)
YoY change in Q2 2026 U.S. food and beverage deal volume; strategics were 86.2% of U.S. transactions (PMCF, August 2026)
TTM food and beverage transaction volume through June 2026 versus the prior-year period (Kroll, July 2026)
2025 disclosed CPG deal value, up from $99B in 2024, even as deal count fell from 180 to 140 (McKinsey, February 2026)
Buyers remain selective, concentrating capital on assets that solve a specific growth or portfolio need.
Sources: industry research (PwC June 2026; PMCF August 2026; Kroll July 2026; McKinsey February 2026); PitchBook and BGP deal tracking, announced or completed CPG food & beverage acquisitions and buyouts in the comp universe, July 1, 2023 to June 30, 2026 (full list in the appendix).
Private label
Private label is gaining share, slowly and structurally
$282.8 billion, share up 2.2 points since 2021. Store-brand unit share went from 21.6% in 2021 to 23.5% in 2025 and a record 23.8% through June 14, 2026. Dollar share rose from 19.1% in 2021 to 21.3% in 2025 and was 21.2% through June 14, 2026.
Gains now come from national-brand decline. Through June 14, 2026, store-brand units rose 0.2% with dollars flat; national-brand units fell 0.5% while dollars rose 2.2%, about +2.7% price/mix. Brands are taking price and losing units. In frozen, 2025 units rose 0.9% and dollars 2.4%.
Loyalty, not just trade-down. 92% of shoppers keep private brands at home, 49% bought more over the past year and 94% say they will keep buying them even if grocery prices decline.
Consumer insights. Category and shopper analytics that inform retailer assortment decisions.
Product innovation. Manufacturer-originated products and fast commercialization.
Supply reliability. Service levels, certifications and capacity that retailers can build programs on.
Taste and quality. Shoppers now cite quality alongside price as a reason to buy store brands.
Program economics. Multi-category, multi-banner programs that deepen over time and survive rebids.
Private label receives a discount when it is merely production capacity. It can receive a premium when it combines growth, innovation and embedded retailer relationships.
Sources: PLMA/Circana Unify+ full-year release January 20, 2026 and midyear release July 8, 2026 (five-year series 2021 to 2025); FMI, The Power of Private Brands 2026; Circana.
Buyer themes
Buyers pay up for proven growth and for capabilities they can leverage to create value
Six recurring buyer themes across 2023 to 2026 food and beverage transactions.
Proven growth with staying power. Campbell's paid 19.8x adjusted EBITDA for Sovos Brands (14.6x with $50M of run-rate synergies) as Rao's compounded above 20% for several years; PepsiCo paid $1.2B for Siete Foods and Flowers Foods $795M for Simple Mills, both fast-growing better-for-you brands.
Consumer and category access. Mars paid 16.4x LTM adjusted EBITDA for Kellanova's global snack demand; Intersnack's pending Utz acquisition (roughly 12.8x adjusted EBITDA) buys U.S. salty-snack market access.
Manufacturing capability and capacity. Rich Products bought Great Kitchens to add fully topped private-label pizza to its dough and crust operations; Premium Brands paid 9.7x FY25 adjusted EBITDA for Stampede's prepared-protein capacity, 7.5x after expected synergies.
Customer programs and innovation. Refresco's $1.1B SunOpta take-private (10.8x FY2026E EBITDA) adds customized supply-chain solutions, plant-based beverage capability and programs spanning brands, retailers and foodservice.
Category entry platforms. Cal-Maine bought Echo Lake Foods ($258M, roughly 1.1x revenue on a business with a 10% five-year revenue CAGR) to enter value-added breakfast foods with four plants and retail, QSR and foodservice relationships.
Scale in private brands. Investindustrial's $2.9B TreeHouse take-private acquired one of North America's largest private-brand snacking and beverage manufacturing platforms and its blue-chip retailer relationships.
In each case the buyer adds something it can leverage across a larger system: growth its portfolio lacks, manufacturing capacity to fill, cross-selling or a proven category and products.
Sources: company announcements and investor materials (Campbell's, PepsiCo, Flowers Foods, Mars, Intersnack, Rich Products, Premium Brands, Refresco, Cal-Maine, Investindustrial); PitchBook.
Public manufacturers
The best manufacturers create value through customers, innovation and scarce capacity
+15.7%
Q2 2026 volume growth; net sales +15.5%
Gross margin rose to 42.1% (48.6% adjusted), helped by manufacturing leverage. Consumer pull, unit growth and margin expansion together set the valuation ceiling for food manufacturers.
16.9x EV/NTM EBITDA
$2B
Sales capacity added for roughly $1.1B of growth capex, targeting 15%+ after-tax unlevered IRR
Develops products with major customers, proves them at one account, then fills purpose-built capacity. U.S. protein initiatives grew volume 25% in Q2; management calls the new-capacity pipeline effectively sold out, only about one quarter LTO-related.
10.9x normalized LTM, 9.0x NTM
+9%
FY26 North America volume growth from customer retention and contract wins
Price/mix fell 6% and company adjusted EBITDA fell 9%. Volume bought with price concessions does not convert into value; customer programs matter, and so do their terms.
10.2x EV/NTM EBITDA
+240 bps
Q3 FY26 gross-margin expansion from plant consolidation and productivity savings
Sales fell 6.2% and adjusted EBITDA fell 6.4%. Cost work protects earnings, but without top-line growth the market does not award a growth multiple.
9.3x EV/NTM EBITDA
Premium Brands' delayed 2026 launches cut near-term guidance even though management said customer demand was unchanged: launch timing is a core risk buyers price into forward EBITDA.
Capacity has value when credible customer demand stands behind it, and volume has value when it converts into EBITDA and cash.
Sources: company Q2/Q3 2026 earnings materials and calls (Freshpet, Premium Brands, Lamb Weston, J&J Snack Foods); PitchBook trading data as of August 28, 2026.
Valuation methodologies
Valuation rests on three lenses; public comparables and precedents anchor this update
Company valuations rest on three primary methodologies: publicly traded peers (comparable company analysis), precedent transactions and discounted cash flow analysis. Valuation multiples differ across deal size, company growth rates, customer diversification, manufacturing capability and capacity, margin profile and category. This update covers comparable company analysis and precedent transactions.
Public trading comparables analysis
Methodology
- Apply LTM (last twelve months) and NTM (next twelve months or forward) EBITDA multiples of the publicly traded comparables group
Considerations
- No perfect comparable company
- Publicly traded comparables are generally large and diversified
Precedent transaction analysis
Methodology
- Apply EBITDA multiples of the selected precedent transactions
Considerations
- Difficult to quantify synergies or value applied by select strategic buyers
- Larger transactions receive a multiple premium
- Limited data available on an NTM EBITDA basis to account for growth
Discounted cash flow analysis
Methodology
- Calculate the present value of projected cash flows
Considerations
- Terminal exit multiples
- Only realized if financial projections are achieved
- Capital structure assumptions can affect valuation considerably
Source: BGP analysis.
Public trading comparables, as of August 28, 2026
Growth brands trade above 13x forward EBITDA; scaled manufacturers near 9x
| Company | Business type | EV ($M) | EV/LTM EBITDA (norm.) | EV/NTM EBITDA | Growth | 3-yr CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freshpet | High-growth refrigerated brand | $3,546 | 17.9x | 16.9x | +6% | 20.8% |
| Mondelez | Global snacking brands | 99,987 | 16.4x | 14.7x | +11.4% | 5.2% |
| Hershey | Confectionery brands | 41,108 | 15.4x | 13.5x | +14.2% | 3.9% |
| Utz Brands (p) | Salty snacks; pending Intersnack | 2,848 | 13.0x | 12.3x | +5.4% | 0.5% |
| Premium Brands | Hybrid specialty-food platform | 5,590 | 10.9x | 9.0x | +21.3% | 9.6% |
| Lamb Weston | Frozen branded / private label | 11,434 | 10.0x | 10.2x | (1.9%) | 7.3% |
| Cranswick | Value-added food manufacturer | 4,249 | 10.4x | 9.3x | +12.7% | 8.7% |
| J&J Snack Foods | Branded / co-man frozen snacks | 1,796 | 9.7x | 9.3x | +3.8% | 0.2% |
| Post Holdings | Branded manufacturing platform | 11,130 | 6.8x | 7.1x | (3.9%) | 8.3% |
| Nomad Foods | Branded frozen food | 3,989 | 7.0x | 7.3x | (5.4%) | (0.7%) |
| General Mills | Scaled branded food | 35,713 | 10.6x | 11.3x | (6.4%) | (2.9%) |
| Kraft Heinz | Scaled branded food | 46,920 | 8.1x | 9.4x | (14.3%) | (2.8%) |
| Conagra Brands | Scaled branded food | 14,775 | 7.8x | 8.0x | (3.4%) | (2.8%) |
| Campbell's | Scaled branded food | 13,585 | 8.1x | 8.4x | (3.8%) | 2.3% |
| Tyson Foods | Protein / packaged foods | 26,862 | 9.4x | 7.0x | +34.7% | 1.5% |
| Smithfield Foods | Protein / packaged foods | 9,996 | 5.9x | 5.8x | +1.3% | n/a |
| Median | $11,282 | 9.9x | 9.3x | +2.6% | 2.3% |
Enterprise value reflects August 28, 2026 closing prices applied to the most recently reported net debt; PitchBook's period-end EV fields produce multiples roughly 6% lower. Trailing bases are not interchangeable: Premium Brands screens at 16.6x raw GAAP trailing, 10.9x normalized trailing and 9.0x forward. This table uses normalized trailing and consensus forward throughout. Normalized EBITDA excludes impairments and one-time items; GAAP trailing EBITDA is negative for Conagra and Kraft Heinz and includes one-time gains for Freshpet. Implied EBITDA growth equals LTM divided by NTM, less one, and does not change with the EV basis. Tyson and Kraft Heinz reflect consensus-coverage differences and should be read directionally.
Trading comps by segment
| Segment | Constituents | EV/LTM EBITDA | EV/NTM EBITDA | Implied growth | 3-yr CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer growth brands | Freshpet, Mondelez, Hershey | 16.4x | 14.7x | +9.6% | 5.2% |
| Value-added manufacturers | Premium Brands, Lamb Weston, Cranswick, J&J Snack Foods, Post, ARYZTA | 9.9x | 9.1x | +3.4% | 7.8% |
| Scaled branded food | General Mills, Kraft Heinz, Conagra, Campbell's, Smucker, Hormel, Flowers, Post, Nomad, Utz | 8.1x | 8.9x | (8.7%) | 0.2% |
| Private label & prepared foods | Greencore, Premier Foods, Flowers Foods | 8.8x | 7.9x | +12.2% | 5.3% |
| Protein & commodity processing | Tyson, Smithfield, Maple Leaf, High Liner | 7.4x | 6.8x | +8.3% | 0.5% |
| Full tracked universe (44 companies) | Global packaged food, snacks, manufacturers and processors | 9.7x | 9.1x | +1.9% | 2.9% |
Segments overlap (Post and Flowers appear in two). Medians use available PitchBook data across the 44-company universe, excluding Grieg Seafood for a corrupted enterprise value. Trailing multiples use normalized EBITDA; EV reflects August 28, 2026 closing prices.
A middle-market manufacturer needs evidence to trade above much larger, diversified peers at 9.1x forward. Growth and returns track forward multiples most closely (3-yr revenue CAGR +0.39, ROIC +0.32); one year of headline growth is less impactful (+0.11).
Source: PitchBook market data as of August 28, 2026, EV at that day's closing prices. Trailing = normalized EBITDA; forward = consensus EBITDA estimates. BGP segmentation and analysis.
Growth and valuation
Forward multiples track sustained growth, not category labels
EV / NTM EBITDA vs. 3-year revenue CAGR; bubble size = LTM EBITDA
Freshpet pairs a 20.8% three-year revenue CAGR with a 16.9x forward multiple. Consumer pull plus unit growth sets the valuation ceiling.
Premium Brands (9.6% CAGR, 9.0x) and Lamb Weston (7.3%, 10.2x) hold the top of the manufacturing band; ARYZTA sits lower at 6.0x as its growth normalizes.
Nomad and J&J trade near 7x to 9x forward with roughly flat three-year CAGRs. Brand or category ownership alone is not rewarded.
Correlation of forward EV/EBITDA across the universe: +0.39 with 3-yr revenue CAGR, +0.33 with gross margin, +0.32 with ROIC, +0.11 with latest-year revenue growth. Chart shows seven representative comps; correlations across the 44-company universe. Bubble size reflects LTM EBITDA. Correlations are directional, not causal.
Higher forward valuation multiples (EV / NTM EBITDA) for demonstrated, multi-year growth.
Source: PitchBook market data as of August 28, 2026; EV reflects that day's closing prices.
Precedent transactions, CPG food & beverage, 2024 to 2026
Differentiated manufacturers clear high single digits to low teens
| Announced | Target | Acquirer | Target description | EV (US$M) | EV/LTM EBITDA | EV/NTM EBITDA | Implied growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul-26 | Utz Brands | Intersnack | U.S. branded salty snacks; manufacturing and DSD network | $2,900 | 12.8x* | n/d | n/d |
| Jun-26 | Highland Baking | Europastry (Ares) | Customized bakery manufacturing for retail and foodservice | 852 | n/d | n/d | n/d |
| Feb-26 | SunOpta | Refresco | Custom beverage and plant-based supply solutions and innovation | 1,140 | 15.0x† | 10.8x | +39% |
| Jan-26 | Nathan's Famous | Smithfield Foods | Branded hot dogs; licensing-heavy model embedded in buyer's network | 450 | 12.4x* | 10.0x‡ | +24% |
| Jan-26 | Great Kitchens | Rich Products | Fully topped private-label pizza; combined with Rich's dough operations | n/d | n/d | n/d | n/d |
| Dec-25 | Stampede Culinary | Premium Brands | Prepared proteins and sous-vide capacity; meaningful unused capacity | 663 § | 9.7x* | 7.5x‡ | +29% |
| Nov-25 | TreeHouse Foods | Investindustrial | Largest N.A. private-brand snacking and beverage manufacturer | 2,900 | 8.0x† | n/d | n/d |
| Jul-25 | WK Kellogg | Ferrero | U.S. cereal brands (Frosted Flakes, Special K); mature category | 3,100 | 11.2x¶ | n/d | n/d |
| Apr-25 | Echo Lake Foods | Cal-Maine Foods | Value-added breakfast foods; four plants; retail, QSR and foodservice | 258 | ~1.1x rev | n/d | n/d |
| Jan-25 | Sauer Brands | Advent International | Condiments and seasonings platform (Duke's, Sauer's) | 1,500 | 10.7x† | n/d | n/d |
| Jan-25 | Simple Mills | Flowers Foods | Better-for-you baking mixes, crackers and snacks | 795 | 3.3x rev | n/d | n/d |
| Oct-24 | Siete Foods | PepsiCo | Mexican-American better-for-you food brand | 1,200 | 2.4x rev | n/d | n/d |
| Aug-24 | Kellanova | Mars | Global snacking brands: Pringles, Cheez-It, Pop-Tarts | 35,900 | 16.4x* | n/d | n/d |
| Jul-24 | Mademoiselle Desserts | Emmi | European premium frozen dessert manufacturing platform | 1,010 | 11.7x† | n/d | n/d |
| Median | $1,140 | 11.7x | n/m | +29% |
EBITDA bases are not interchangeable: PitchBook GAAP-implied trailing multiples screen far above the adjusted figures buyers quote (Utz 23.0x GAAP vs. 12.8x reported). § Stampede 9.7x FY2025A on the US$663M base price; Premium Brands' C$1,024M includes contingent consideration. ¶ WK Kellogg: US$3.1B EV over FY2024 adjusted EBITDA of US$275M; Ferrero disclosed EV only. Implied growth = LTM over NTM or post-synergy multiple, less one; SunOpta FY2026E as NTM. * company-reported adjusted EBITDA; † PitchBook-implied; ‡ post-synergy or normalized; n/d = not disclosed; n/m = not meaningful.
Source: company announcements and investor materials; PitchBook. All EVs in US$M.
Private equity activity, CPG food & beverage
Sponsors are building food manufacturing platforms around growth and capacity
Strategics led 2025 deal counts, but sponsor capital is concentrating in acquisitions of manufacturers that combine owned brands, private-label programs and a clear path to growth.
| Sponsor | Investment | Announced | What the deal shows |
|---|---|---|---|
| CVC Capital Partners | IFF Food Ingredients (~$4.3B) | May-26 | Sponsors absorbing manufacturing carve-outs from large strategics |
| KKR | Nothing Bundt Cakes (reported ~$2B) | Mar-26 | Large-cap appetite for premium baked goods with unit growth |
| L Catterton | Good Culture (majority) | Jan-26 | Growth capital chasing high-velocity better-for-you refrigerated brands |
| Investindustrial | TreeHouse Foods ($2.9B EV) | Nov-25 | Conviction in scaled private-brand snacking and beverage manufacturing; follows Winland Foods ($950M, 2022) |
| Advent International | Sauer Brands ($1.5B; 10.7x) | Jan-25 | Condiments platform built for add-on M&A |
| Mubadala Capital | TruFood + Bar Bakers | May-24 | Consolidating better-for-you contract manufacturing capacity |
Sponsors hold near-record dry powder and treat food as a resilient sector to deploy capital. PE interest is concentrated in growth manufacturers; mid-tier assets without growth remain challenged.
Source: sponsor and company announcements; industry research (Akin 2026 Food & Agriculture Perspectives; PKF O'Connor Davies Food & Beverage M&A Update, Summer 2026); PitchBook.
Food-focused PE sponsors with a track record in the space
The profiles span the sponsor spectrum, from lower-middle-market food specialists to large consumer funds. Each holds a food-manufacturing platform today, and most bought or sold one since January 2025.
| Sponsor | Profile | Recent food deals |
|---|---|---|
| Arbor Investments | Food and beverage only since 1999; Fund VI closed April 2025 at $1.2B; 80+ platform and add-on investments | Furlani Foods (Feb-26): frozen bakery with owned brands plus private label for Walmart and Aldi; 19 bakery deals incl. Rise Baking |
| Entrepreneurial Equity Partners | Food-only lower middle market (Chicago); partners with founder families | Furlani (2023, alongside founding family; sold to Arbor Feb-26); Cole's Quality Foods add-on (2024) |
| Altamont Capital Partners | Bay Area middle-market fund, $4B+ AUM; control deals with founder and family owners | Mini Melts USA (Jan-24): beaded frozen novelty maker; growth capital for capacity and distribution; Colorado Boxed Beef protein platform (2017) |
| Cotton Creek Capital | Lower-middle-market fund (Austin) | Ne-Mo's Bakery (Oct-25): individually wrapped baked goods; thesis is added capacity and c-store distribution |
| Insignia Capital Group | Lower-middle-market fund (Walnut Creek, CA); partners with founder-owned businesses above $5M EBITDA | Chocolate Works (Sep-23): founder-owned branded and private-label chocolate maker, two plants; also holds Century Snacks and Tillamook Country Smoker |
| Tenex Capital / JTM Foods | Mid-market fund with snack-pie platform | JTM added Cloverhill and Big Texas brands from Smucker (Jan-25, ~$40M) |
| Investindustrial | European large-cap with U.S. food conviction | TreeHouse Foods ($2.9B, Nov-25); Winland Foods ($950M, 2022) |
| L Catterton | Largest consumer-focused sponsor | Good Culture majority stake (Jan-26, alongside Manna Tree) |
Run strategics and sponsors in parallel. PE sponsor bids set a credible floor and could force strategics to pay a premium to win the deal, or a sponsor could pay up to form a new platform.
Source: sponsor announcements and fund closings; trade press; PitchBook. Profiles are illustrative, not an approach list.
If your company evidences unit growth, differentiated capacity or embedded customer programs, we would like to show you how buyers would price it.
Discuss a transactionAppendix
Supporting evidence, limitations, category detail and the full transaction universe
Full precedent transaction universe
| Target | Buyer / sponsor | Date / status | Business | Deal type | EV ($M) | EV/rev. | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utz Brands | Intersnack | Jul '26 (p) | Branded snacks | Corporate* | 2,900 | n.d. | 12.8x |
| Copra | Vita Coco | Jul '26 | Coconut beverages | Corporate | 175 | 1.8x | n.d. |
| Highland Baking | Europastry (Ares, MCH) | Jun '26 | Private-label bakery | Add-on | 852 | n.d. | n.d. |
| Jimmy's Cookies | Rise Baking (Butterfly) | Jun '26 | Premium cookies | Add-on | n.d. | n.d. | n.d. |
| SunOpta | Refresco (BCI) | Feb '26 | Co-manufacturing | Take-private | 1,140 | 1.4x | 15.0x† |
| Furlani Foods | Arbor Investments | Feb '26 | Frozen bakery | Secondary | n.d. | n.d. | n.d. |
| Nathan's Famous | Smithfield Foods | Jan '26 | Branded CPG | Corporate | 450 | 2.8x | 12.4x |
| Great Kitchens | Rich Products | Jan '26 | Frozen pizza | Corporate | n.d. | n.d. | n.d. |
| Stampede Culinary | Premium Brands | Dec '25 | Prepared protein | Corporate | 663 | n.d. | 9.7x |
| TreeHouse Foods | Investindustrial | Nov '25 | Private label | Take-private | 2,900 | 0.9x | 8.0x† |
| Joseph's Gourmet | Turri's (Benford) | Jul '25 | Frozen pasta | Add-on | n.d. | n.d. | n.d. |
| WK Kellogg | Ferrero | Jul '25 | Branded cereal | Corporate | 3,100 | n.d. | 11.2x¶ |
| Chef Boyardee | Hometown Food (Brynwood) | May '25 | Branded carve-out | Carve-out | 601 | n.d. | n.d. |
| Echo Lake Foods | Cal-Maine Foods | Apr '25 | Frozen breakfast | Corporate | 258 | 1.1x | n.d. |
| CraftMark Bakery | One Equity Partners | Mar '25 | Co-man bakery | Sponsor | n.d. | n.d. | n.d. |
| Sauer Brands | Advent International | Jan '25 | Condiments | Buyout | 1,500 | n.d. | 10.7x† |
| Simple Mills | Flowers Foods | Jan '25 | Better-for-you snacks | Corporate | 795 | 3.3x | n.d. |
| Cole's Quality Foods | Furlani (e2p) | Dec '24 | Frozen bread | Add-on | n.d. | n.d. | n.d. |
| Double B Foods | The Anderson Group | Oct '24 | Frozen foods | Buyout | n.d. | n.d. | n.d. |
| Siete Foods | PepsiCo | Oct '24 | Better-for-you branded | Corporate | 1,200 | 2.4x | n.d. |
| Kellanova | Mars | Aug '24 | Global snacks | Corporate | 35,900 | 2.7x | 16.4x |
| Mademoiselle Desserts | Emmi | Jul '24 | Frozen desserts | Corporate | 1,010 | n.d. | 11.7x |
| Inovata Foods | Swander Pace | Jun '24 | Frozen meals | Growth equity | n.d. | n.d. | n.d. |
| Sunrise Growers | Nature's Touch | Oct '23 | Frozen-fruit processing | Asset | 141 | 0.5x | 9.4x |
| Hostess Brands | J.M. Smucker | Sep '23 | Branded snacks | Corporate | 5,600 | 4.1x | 17.2x |
| Sovos Brands | Campbell's | Aug '23 | Premium branded | Corporate | 2,668 | 2.8x | 19.8x |
| Alpha Foods | LIVEKINDLY | Aug '23 | Frozen plant-based | Corporate | n.d. | n.d. | n.d. |
| Winland Foods | Investindustrial | Aug '22 | Meal preparation | Carve-out | 950 | 0.6x | 13.6x |
| Fortenova frozen | Nomad Foods | Sep '21 | Frozen branded foods | Carve-out | 754 | n.d. | 11.9x |
Source: PitchBook; company filings. Announcement dates; (p) = pending as of August 28, 2026. Multiples per company-disclosed adjusted EBITDA (Stampede 9.7x on US$663M base); (†) = PitchBook-implied; (¶) = BGP calculation on FY2024 adjusted EBITDA, Ferrero disclosed EV only. Sovos 19.8x and Hostess 17.2x exclude synergies (14.6x and 13.2x with $50M and $100M run-rate synergies).
Public valuation varies significantly across CPG categories
| CPG category | 3-yr CAGR | 1-yr growth | EBITDA margin | EV/LTM rev. | EV/NTM rev. | EV/LTM EBITDA | EV/NTM EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baked Goods | 2.5% | 6.5% | 11.4% | 0.95x | 0.96x | 7.1x | 6.8x |
| Branded Foods | 2.1% | 2.8% | 16.3% | 1.35x | 1.38x | 9.2x | 9.0x |
| Dairy | 5.3% | 13.0% | 10.2% | 1.19x | 1.20x | 11.7x | 10.8x |
| Nutrition | 4.7% | (0.9%) | 14.5% | 1.49x | 1.46x | 12.3x | 10.8x |
| Private Label | 9.9% | 5.1% | 12.1% | 1.08x | 0.76x | 8.5x | 7.4x |
| Snacks | 3.1% | 5.4% | 12.1% | 1.90x | 1.84x | 14.9x | 10.3x |
| Non-Alcoholic Beverages | 5.7% | 9.3% | 20.6% | 2.26x | 2.20x | 10.4x | 10.0x |
| Wine, Beer & Spirits | (1.3%) | (1.6%) | 25.3% | 2.36x | 2.44x | 10.0x | 9.8x |
Key observations
- Snacks carries the highest trailing multiple (14.9x), but its forward multiple is substantially lower (10.3x); the market expects EBITDA to grow into the price.
- Private label grew revenue faster than branded foods over three years (9.9% vs. 2.1% CAGR) yet trades at a discount (8.5x vs. 9.2x LTM EBITDA).
- Branded foods' 9.2x median masks a wide range between declining legacy brands and high-growth premium brands.
- Growth and EBITDA outlook must be examined at the company level; category medians alone are insufficient.
Methodology: constituents follow Wall Street Research food and beverage coverage; medians are unweighted. EV / LTM and EV / NTM are enterprise value over trailing and consensus forward figures; EBITDA margin is LTM EBITDA / LTM revenue. All figures are category medians as of June 30, 2026. Source: PitchBook; Wall Street Research.
Business model creates a second layer of valuation differentiation
| Business model | Typical attributes | Precedent transactions (reported EV / EBITDA) | Trading comps (EV / LTM EBITDA)* |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premium growth brand | Consumer pull, category leadership, synergies | Sovos 19.8x; Hostess 17.2x; Kellanova 16.4x | Freshpet 17.9x |
| High-growth hybrid manufacturer | Brands plus private label, differentiated production | n/a | Premium Brands 10.9x norm.; Lamb Weston 10.0x; ARYZTA 7.3x‡ |
| Scaled co-manufacturing platform | Innovation, embedded customers, modern capacity | SunOpta 15.0x†; Mademoiselle 11.7x; Stampede 9.7x | J&J Snack Foods 9.7x |
| Scaled and traditional private label | Reliable production, retailer relationships, limited differentiation | Winland 13.6x; TreeHouse 8.0x† | Greencore 12.7x‡; Seneca 6.9x‡ |
| Commodity or asset-heavy processor | Low growth, volatile inputs, high capital intensity | n/a | Flowers 6.6x‡ |
| Carve-out or challenged asset | Separation complexity, customer losses, turnaround | Fortenova frozen 11.9x; Sunrise Growers 9.4x | n/a |
* Trading multiples are EV / LTM EBITDA as of August 28, 2026; Premium Brands is on the normalized trailing basis (10.9x normalized vs. 16.6x raw GAAP and 9.0x forward). ‡ = outside the main comps universe, as of June 30, 2026. † = PitchBook-implied. Transaction multiples are disclosed EV / EBITDA, LTM adjusted unless noted (Stampede 9.7x FY2025A on the US$663M base price). Trailing prints above 12x embed forward step-ups; those assets trade or transacted at 6.6x to 10.8x forward. Source: BGP analysis of public trading levels and disclosed transaction multiples, 2020 to August 2026.
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